Exercise 1.47

Events A and B are independent if P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) (independence is explored in detail in the next chapter).
(a) Give an example of independent events A and B in a finite sample space S (with neither equal to ∅ or S ), and illustrate it with a Pebble World diagram.
(b) Consider the experiment of picking a random point in the rectangle

R = {(x,y) : 0 < x < 1,0 < y < 1}

where the probability of the point being in any particular region contained within R is the area of that region. Let A1 and B1 be rectangles contained within R, with areas not equal to 0 or 1 . Let A be the event that the random point is in A1, and B be the event that the random point is in B1. Give a geometric description of when it is true that A and B are independent. Also, give an example where they are independent and another example where they are not independent. (c) Show that if A and B are independent, then

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B) = 1 − P (Ac) P (Bc)

Answers

(a)
Consider the experiment of flipping a fair coin twice. The sample space S is {HH,HT,TH,TT}. Let A be the event that the first flip lands heads and B be the event that the second flip lands heads. P(A ∩ B) = 1 4 since A ∩ B corresponds to the outcome HH.

On the other hand, A corresponds to the outcomes {HH,HT} and B corresponds to the outcomes {HH,TH}. Thus, P(A) = P(B) = 1 2.

Since P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B), A and B are independent events.

(b)
A1 and B1 should intersect such that the ratio of the area of A1 ∩ B1 to the area of A1 equals the ratio of the area of B1 to the area of R.

As a simple, extreme case, if A1 = B1, then A and B are dependent, since the condition above is violated.

(c)
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B) = P(A)(1 − P(B)) + P(B) = P(A)P(Bc) + P(B) = P(A)P(Bc) + 1 − P(Bc) = 1 + P(Bc)(P(A) − 1) = 1 − P(Bc)P(Ac)
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2021-12-05 00:00
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