Exercise 4.4

Answers

Key idea is that the expected value of a die roll is 3.5. If the value of a roll is less than 4, one should roll again.

For the winnings to be 1, 2 or 3 under the above strategy, the first two dice need to land on a value less than 4, and the last die needs to land on 1, 2, and 3 respectively.

Thus, P(W = i) = (3 6)2 1 6 = 1 24 for i 1,2,3.

For the winnings to be i 4, either the first die lands on i, or the first die lands on a value less than 4, and the second die lands on i, or the first two dice land on values less than 4, and the third die lands on i.

Thus, P(W = i) = 1 6 + 3 6 1 6 + (3 6)2 1 6 = 7 24 for i 4,5,6.

Thus,

E(W) = (1 + 2 + 3) 1 24 + (4 + 5 + 6) 7 24 = 4.625

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2021-12-05 00:00
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