Homepage Solution manuals Kevin P. Murphy Machine Learning: a Probabilistic Perspective Exercise 2.1 - Probability are sensitive to the form of the question that was used to generate the answer

Exercise 2.1 - Probability are sensitive to the form of the question that was used to generate the answer

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Denote two children by A and B . The space of all experiment results, Ω is composed of:

ω 1 : A  is a girl,  , B  is a girl ,

ω 2 : A  is a boy,  , B  is a boy ,

ω 3 : A  is a girl,  , B  is a boy ,

ω 4 : A  is a boy,  , B  is a girl .

With uniform probability measure. Denote the σ -algebra on Ω as 2 Ω .

In question (a), with the knowledge there is at least one boy, Ω is modified into:

Ω = { ω 2 , ω 3 , ω 4 } .

The event that one child is a girl is { ω 3 , ω 4 } , whose probability is:

| { ω 3 , ω 4 } | | Ω | = 2 3 .

In question (b), with the knowledge that A is a boy, the reduced experiment space is:

Ω = { ω 2 , ω 4 } .

Then the probability that B is a girl is:

| { ω 4 } | | Ω | = 1 2 .

The difference in the form of the question is reflected in that Ω is reduced to different forms and the desired events vary with our questions.

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2021-03-24 13:42
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